NITI Aayog has been working on an action plan to relieve rural distress and energise the agricultural sector
The revision of the consumer price index and GDP base years from 2011-12 and 2012, respectively, were dependent on the outcomes of the consumer expenditure survey of 2017-18 that the government decided to junk recently.
'It is going to be a tough balance for the RBI to manage economic stability and ensure smooth government borrowing.'
As per commerce and industry ministry data, food inflation fell to 4.91 per cent in March from 7.79 per cent in the previous month.
Retail inflation dropped marginally to 7.01 per cent in June mainly due to slight easing in prices of vegetables and pulses, though it still remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level for the sixth month in a row. The consumer price index (CPI) based inflation stood at 7.04 per cent in the preceding month of May and 6.26 per cent in June 2021. Inflation in the food basket in June 2022 was 7.75 per cent, compared to 7.97 per cent in the previous month, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Tuesday.
RBI may go for a 25-basis point cut at its February policy meet.
Analysts at Barclays pitched for a 0.25 per cent cut to generate demand advising the central bank to throw caution to the wind.
PSU bank shares were the top gainers on hopes of a rate by the RBI on easing consumer inflation
Emerging markets such as India have always run higher inflation rates than developed economies such as the US and countries of Western Europe. But for the first time in the past 30 years, the US reported a higher consumer price inflation (CPI) rate than India in five consecutive months. The US reported a CPI rate of 7.5 per cent in January 2022 against 6.01 per cent in India and analysts expect the trend to continue for at least a few months more
Costlier vegetables and eggs pushed up retail inflation to a nearly six-and-a-half year high of 7.61 per cent in October, keeping it significantly above the comfort zone of the Reserve Bank.
Dr Reddy's was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 3 per cent, followed by PowerGrid, TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, L&T, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards.
RBI recently cut repo by 0.25 percentage point, taking the rate to 7.25 per cent in three reductions since January.
The RBI on Friday retained inflation forecast for FY23 at 6.7 per cent amid uncertain price trajectory on "geopolitical shocks" and on hope that inflationary pressures would ease with pick-up in kharif sowing and supply chain improvements. In its previous monetary policy review in June, it had projected retail inflation for 2022-23 at 6.7 per cent, higher from 5.7 per cent forecast in April. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to raise the benchmark repo rate by a steep 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent with immediate effect to tame inflation while supporting growth.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
The surprise decision of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to cut oil output may cause an immediate rise in prices, delaying revision in fuel prices in India, industry sources said. The grouping of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, called OPEC+, on Sunday decided to further cut oil output by around 1.16 million barrels. The move led to Brent rising by almost 6 per cent to $84.58 per barrel on Monday.
Trumponomics, poor growth, and high valuation certainly don't make a bullish recipe for Indian markets, warns Debashis Basu.
India spends significantly less on defence than could be expected from a country that faces simultaneous armed threats from two hostile neighbours -- China and Pakistan.
Stocks of Indian steel companies are reeling from pricing pressure that is partly blamed on cheap imports. The stocks have declined up to 9 per cent on the NSE in one month, likely allowing investors an opportunity to use the correction to enter the pack as pricing pressure eases. "In steel or any other commodity, if prices or spreads are nearing their bottom, it can be an opportune time to invest in those stocks.
Milk and its products too were less expensive with inflation print of 4.21 per cent, cereals and products at 2.10 per cent, meat & fish at 3.31 per cent while for eggs the prices grew at a slower pace of 8.51 per cent.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday said that inflation is on a declining trajectory, as it has fallen by 170 basis points from its January 2020 peak. Retail inflation fell to four-month low of 5.91 per cent in March over the previous month, mainly due to easing food prices.
The adverse impact on the margins of auto, consumer staples and consumer durables sectors will be counterbalanced by an earnings uptick in the metals, cement and oil & gas sectors.
The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved a revision in the formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or ceiling price to help cut CNG and piped cooking gas prices by up to 10 per cent. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will now be indexed to the price of imported crude oil instead of benchmarking it to gas prices in four surplus nations such as the US, Canada and Russia, Union I&B Miniser Anurag Thakur told reporters after a meeting of the Cabinet. APM gas will be priced at 10 per cent of the price of basket of crude oil that India imports (Indian basket of crude oil).
The rate of price rise in the vegetable segment almost doubled to 7.47 per cent as against 3.92 per cent in September.
India's manufacturing sector activity moderated in April, but still recorded the second fastest improvement in operating conditions in three-and-a-half years supported by buoyant demand, a monthly survey said on Thursday.
Since March 2020, WPI food inflation rate continued to fall but the CPI-food inflation rose, signaling a breakdown in supply chain from the mandis to the final household.
Lower income groups earning less than Rs 100,000 a year are yet to recover as are those earning between Rs 100,000 and Rs 200,000.
Indian passenger vehicles market registered record wholesales of 43 lakh units in 2024, with companies like market leader Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Toyota Kirloskar Motor, and Kia posting their best-ever annual domestic sales. The continued growth of SUVs, along with rural markets playing a key role in driving up car sales, helped the industry better the previous best of nearly 41.1 lakh units posted in 2023.
India's manufacturing sector activity hit the highest level in eight months in July, driven by a significant rise in business orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose from 53.9 in June to 56.4 in July, reflecting the strongest improvement in the health of the sector in eight months. The July PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 13th straight month.
Industrial output had slowed to 5-month low of 2.1% in March.
Retail inflation measured by the consumer price index has risen sharply across food and non-food constituents, including services, keeping inflation expectations high, the Reserve Bank of India said in its Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2013-14.
The DA hike will take effect from July 1.
However, some analysts say RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan may delay the rate cuts amid mounting concerns over the government's fiscal health.
Items such as cereals and products, meat and fish, oils and fats became cheaper
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers index for the services industry inched up to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September, the fourth successive monthly contraction of service sector output across India.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
Companies in the banking, finance sector and insurance (BFSI) sector have underperformed on the bourses despite leading the earnings growth charts in the post-pandemic period. This has created a dichotomy between their earnings and share prices. BFSI companies have never been less expensive than the rest of the equity market.
Pushed by rising prices of essential kitchen items, the retail inflation rose to an eight-month high of 7.34 per cent in September, making the RBI's task to push growth by reducing the interest rate even more difficult in coming the days. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was 6.69 per cent in August and 3.99 per cent in September 2019. Inflation has been hovering above 4 per cent since October 2019.
'There are occasions when the prices of individual items like food raise inflation; then supply-side measures must be taken.' 'But if there is continued inflation, it means liquidity is aggravating the situation.'
The RBI, which has been keeping rates at an elevated level citing high inflation, wants it to come down to 6 per cent by January 2016.
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