Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
The rate of price rise in the vegetable segment almost doubled to 7.47 per cent as against 3.92 per cent in September.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
This is the case even though the benchmark index is only 5 per cent below its all-time high. The list of stocks trading at a discount primarily consists companies in the automotive, banking, oil and gas, insurance, healthcare, and metal sectors.
Pushed by rising prices of essential kitchen items, the retail inflation rose to an eight-month high of 7.34 per cent in September, making the RBI's task to push growth by reducing the interest rate even more difficult in coming the days. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was 6.69 per cent in August and 3.99 per cent in September 2019. Inflation has been hovering above 4 per cent since October 2019.
Items such as cereals and products, meat and fish, oils and fats became cheaper
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
The DA hike will take effect from July 1.
Industrial output had slowed to 5-month low of 2.1% in March.
IMD expects day temperatures to remain above-normal in select regions across the country between March and May 2021.
Inflation in food articles, fuel and power contracted in July.
As per the data released by the NSO, the overall food inflation rose to 14.12 per cent in December as against (-) 2.65 per cent in the same month of 2018.
Retail inflation measured by the consumer price index has risen sharply across food and non-food constituents, including services, keeping inflation expectations high, the Reserve Bank of India said in its Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2013-14.
However, some analysts say RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan may delay the rate cuts amid mounting concerns over the government's fiscal health.
As India looks to mend its Covid-battered economy, one thing that will grab the attention of all concerned is the path that both wholesale and retail inflation will follow. Even the Reserve Bank of India in its latest policy statement said, "Going forward, the inflation trajectory is likely to be shaped by uncertainties impinging on the upside and the downside.
The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers index for the services industry inched up to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September, the fourth successive monthly contraction of service sector output across India.
The RBI, which has been keeping rates at an elevated level citing high inflation, wants it to come down to 6 per cent by January 2016.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
The impact of fiscal measures announced by the government to contain inflation will be seen in the next few months because of the base effect, reports Indivjal Dhasmana.
For protein rich items such as meat and fish, eggs as well as milk and products, the inflation in May slowed compared to last month
The RBI targets inflation at 6 percent by January 2016 and 4 percent for 2017/18.
In October, CPI inflation was 5 per cent.
The government on Monday ruled out making public the RBI report detailing the reasons why the central bank could not keep inflation within the targeted 6 per cent upper limit for the three consecutive quarters. "Yes sir, RBI has furnished a report to the central government, as mandated under Section 45ZN of the RBI Act, 1934 and Regulation 7 of RBI Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy process Regulations, 2016," minister of state for finance Pankaj Chaudhary said in a written reply. The said provisions of the RBI Act, 1934, and regulations therein does not provide for making the report public, he said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday raised the benchmark lending rate by 35 basis points to 6.25 per cent in a bid to tame inflation, which has remained above its tolerance level for the past 11 months. With the latest hike, the repo rate or the short-term lending rate at which banks borrow from the central bank now has crossed 6 per cent. This is the fifth consecutive rate hike after a 40 basis points increase in May and 50 basis points hike each in June, August and September.
India is likely to grow by 7.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, driven by rising aggregate demand and non-food spending in the rural economy, according to an article in the RBI's May Bulletin released on Tuesday. The Indian economy has demonstrated marked resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds impacting the supply chain, said an article on the state of the economy published in the May Bulletin.
Inflation pegs down currency value, re-allocates resources, reduces potential economic growth and leads to the attrition of gross domestic savings.
Among food articles, vegetable prices surged by 69.69 per cent mainly on account of onion, which witnessed 455.83 per cent jump in prices, followed by potato at 44.97 per cent.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
Inflation rate in fuel and power segment was (-)16.50 per cent.
The states that witnessed high CPI-based inflation rates were Lakshadweep, Tripura, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Manipur and Mizoram.
More rate cut by RBI unlikely this fiscal, say Ind-Ra
The Reserve Bank's rate setting panel on Thursday met to finalise a report for the government on why it failed to keep retail inflation below the target of 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters since January this year, said sources. The report will be presented to the government as per the Reserve Bank of India Act, they added. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is headed by Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The WPI inflation stood at negative 2.4% in May 2015, compared with a negative 2.65% in April 2015.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector has underperformed the Nifty over the past year as its 20 per cent return is trumped by 29 per cent of the benchmark index. The FMCG index saw a 2.2 per cent drop in the last session, while the Nifty lost 1 per cent. FMCG is seen as a defensive segment. The demand for staples like personal care products, groceries and snacks tend to be stable. FMCG companies are consistent dividend-payers.
Hitting back at former prime minister Manmohan Singh for his criticism of the Modi government's handling of the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said he is more remembered for having brought India to "fragile five" and rampant inflation during his term.
The consumer price index has been in double digits for much of the past year, and was 9.8 per cent in September.
Selling in index heavyweights, including Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, dragged the benchmark indices into the negative for the second straight session, analysts said. Among the Sensex shares, Asian Paints fell the most by 3.9 per cent as analysts expressed concerns over rising competition in the domestic paints market following the entry of Aditya Birla group company Grasim Industries into the paints segment. IT shares Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra continued to slide amid inflation concerns in the US market.
The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers Index for the services industry inched up to 47.2 in November from 47.1 in October, the fifth sub-50.0 reading and indicated an output contraction across the Indian service economy.
The country had imported 5.5 million tonnes of pulses last year.
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